So, My Unofficial 2023 Oscar Ballot and Predictions.
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Image courtesy of Entertainment Tonight |
Thank God for the Academy Awards (an unuttered sentence to this point in history), for they're the only thing to keep this blog alive and running once a year. As you may be aware, for the last year nearly all of my film reviews have been published over at ForReel (please show them some love); however, I've returned to my old stomping grounds for my annual Oscar ballot (and predictions). This is gonna be a long haul of an article, so I'll save the fluff (and your attention) for the TWENTY-THREE categories I'm about to cover. Let's dive into the 95th Academy Awards nominations.
Best Live Action Short Film
Quick Thoughts: Weakest category of the shorts - by a country mile - and, honestly, most of these aren't even worth seeking out. When I'm feeling considerate I could call a few interesting - but there are so many more interesting films out there, shorts or otherwise. When I'm feeling normal (critical), I'd say skip them, not like you weren't going to already.
My Ballot:
1. An Irish Goodbye - Very funny and Irish and worth watching.
2. Le Pupille
3. Ivalu
4. The Red Suitcase - The final shot is brilliant.
5. Night Ride - Genuinely one of the most offensive and baffling films I watched this year. Can't believe it's nominated.
My Prediction: An Irish Goodbye
Best Animated Short Film
Quick Thoughts: A noticeable step up from the live action shorts category. At least four of these are worth watching, and maybe even all five if you get particularly weepy over sentimental Hallmark cards. The short film categories are practically impossible to predict, as they're their own miniature beast, but this category seems locked up. Just so happens to be the opposite of my ballot.
My Ballot:
1. Ice Merchants - You can go watch this on YouTube right now. It's beautiful and touching and layered and everything you could want from a short film.
2. My Year of Dicks
3. An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
4. The Flying Sailor
5. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse - I hope it loses because they didn't use an Oxford comma, but I know it won't.
My Prediction: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Best Documentary Short Film
Quick Thoughts: Like the animated shorts, this is a fairly solid group of four nominees, plus one awful addition. You can watch my favorite of these on YouTube, the next two on Netflix, my fourth sometime this summer when it finally releases (sorry to flex on y'all), and the last one should be catapulted into the Sun.
My Ballot:
1. Haulout - Jaw dropping in every regard. It improves on itself every other minute. Watch it.
2. The Martha Mitchell Effect
3. The Elephant Whisperers
4. How Do You Measure a Year?
5. Stranger at the Gate
My Prediction: The Elephant Whisperers
Best Sound
My Ballot:
1. Top Gun: Maverick - My hands down winner for this award. Nothing else even came close.
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. The Batman - I like this nomination a lot.
4. Elvis - I guess?
5. Avatar: The Way of Water - What?
The Snub: The Fallout. Great sound in this film. It's very simple.
My Prediction: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Original Song
Quick Thoughts: The easiest category to get into if you aren't a movie person, considering you don't even really have to watch the movies. Almost all of these nominees are end credit music, and the notable exception is the run-away favorite to win the category. So, give yourself like twenty minutes, listen to all the songs, and then you can say you've completed an Oscar category.
My Ballot:
1. Naatu Naatu" - Best song of the year. Best scene of the year. RRR deserved better.
2. "This Is a Life"
3. "Hold My Hand"
4. "Applause" - Fucking hilarious, considering this is definitely from a fake movie.
5. "Lift Me Up" - It sounds like a lullaby. How did the Black Panther franchise go from an entire Kendrick Lamar album to this throw away Rihanna song??
The Snub: "Vegas" by Doja Cat should've been nominated but the Academy fucked her over on a technicality. Stupid. Give Elvis one more nomination. (Can't believe I said that.)
My Prediction: "Naatu Naatu"
Best Original Score
My Ballot:
1. Babylon - Words cannot do this soundtrack justice. My partner will have every beat memorized before they see this movie. A masterwork that seems like it will win too.
2. All Quiet on the Western Front - Should win any other year.
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. The Fabelmans
The Snub: The Batman by Michael Giacchino. It's astounding this wasn't nominated. Would've been my number two or three, easily, and I probably could've talked myself into giving it the Oscar.
My Prediction: Babylon
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Quick Thoughts: I have a theory. If Black Panther: Wakanda Forever wins in costuming, then Elvis will win here. And vice versa. Whether or not either of them should is a different question for a different theory. But I'm basing my predictions for those two categories on that theory. I wouldn't bet this though.
My Ballot:
1. Elvis
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. The Whale - Maybe this should be a visual effects nom?
4. The Batman
5. All Quiet on the Western Front - Shocked at this being nominated over Everything Everywhere All at Once. Not saying it's a bad choice, but I'm surprised by it.
The Snub: Crimes of the Future. Justice for Cronenberg!!
My Prediction: Elvis
Best Costume Design
Quick Thoughts: If you were paying attention to my earlier theory, then you already know where my prediction is going. But I'll point out that this is the first feature category where the top of my preferential ballot is also not my predicted winner. Bundle up, it's about to get crazy from here on out.
My Ballot:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once - Has no chance of winning a category that, in any other year, would be the only thing it was nominated for... The Oscars are changing, huh.
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Elvis
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris - Had no right being as good as it is, but still, it's fucking hilarious this was nominated for anything.
The Snub: The Woman King. The Academy hates black women.
My Prediction: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Visual Effects
Quick Thoughts: It's Avatar. What're we doing here.
My Ballot:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. The Batman - This movie looks cool as hell, and I can't believe I have it beat out by three others.
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - This movie looks fucking awful.
The Snub: Nope. Get used to seeing this.
My Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Film Editing
Quick Thoughts: A really good slate of nominees, with a surprise nomination for my favorite Irish film. Had to pay more attention to editing this year, not just because my brain demands I carefully pay attention to all things film, but because I felt I had a duty to as an Independent Spirit Award voter. Anyway, more on that in a minute.
My Ballot:
1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Tár - The Academy hates awarding long movies the editing award, but it's soon time they recognize that making long stretches of time pass so easily is one of the most difficult and accomplished feats of editing.
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Elvis
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
The Snub: Aftersun. This garnered my vote at the Spirit Awards. I think what Blair McClendon was able to do here is absolutely astonishing. It's a movie about, amongst other things, editing, and it works so well because of it.
My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
I guess? This is the first one I've been pretty unsure of. I hope it goes to Maverick, and I wouldn't be surprised if it did. If I think on it too long I get queasy.
Best Production Design
Quick Thoughts: This category is cool as fuck. It's just like, "Hey, let's award the people who make the world building look good," and that can be as high brow, low brow, or undefined as possible. Usually the maximalists win the day, but I'm fine with that. I'm a maximalist.
My Ballot:
1. Babylon - Fuck yeah.
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Elvis
5. The Fabelmans - Like I said, I'm a maximalist.
The Snub: Everything Everywhere All at Once. So strange where they turned off the tap for this film.
My Prediction: Babylon
Best Cinematography
Quick Thoughts: BOOOOOOOOO!!! Here it is. There's always one category that the Academy gets just catastrophically wrong, and this year it's one of my favorites. Why couldn't y'all have fucked up the Sound category or something? Jesus Christ, these nominees are awful. I could pick an entirely new lineup of five nominees off the top of my head that would kick these five to the curb (and I do actually like some of these). How these nominees are so bleh and yet there's still a contest is beyond me.
My Ballot:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front - Not the lock it should be.
2. Tár - Earned my ballot for Best Cinematography at the Spirit Awards.
3. Elvis - I fucking guess.
4. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths - You're kidding me.
5. Empire of Light - Get the fuck outta my face. I almost walked out of this film and Roger Deakins was there!
The Snub: Nope. This felt like a lock for a nomination (and maybe even win) when I left the theater last summer. Just so fucking good from behind the camera. Of all the misses for Nope at the Oscars, this one hurts the most. Also, Decision to Leave. What the FUCK!
My Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best International Feature Film
Quick Thoughts: I want to be bold and predict anything other than All Quiet on the Western Front to win (looking at you, Argentina), but how can I fly in the face of conventional wisdom? All Quiet is nominated for Best Picture and a slew of other awards. Every other nominee is only represented here. Seems like a default that this award would go to All Quiet, right? I'm either over-thinking this or under-thinking it, and I don't think it's possible to get the thinking perfect here. Ugh...
My Ballot:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Argentina, 1985
3. EO - This movie rocks.
4. The Quiet Girl
5. Close - The kind of movie that people who are actually afraid of slow movies consider a good slow movie.
The Snub: WHERE THE FUCK IS DECISION TO LEAVE!?! CMON!!
My Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Documentary Feature Film
Quick Thoughts: If I had control of the nominations, only one of these five would be nominated. That being said, a pretty good crop of nominees here. There are none that feel far below the others. All have performed well at prior awards shows. There's a lot of love for each floating around. If you chose to fire one up on a Sunday afternoon, you pretty much couldn't go wrong with any of these. That's probably what makes predicting this one so tough.
My Ballot:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Fire of Love - I think this would be a dope winner, but I'm afraid it'll get bumped out by the current geopolitics of another nominee.
3. Navalny - This is that other nominee.
4. A House Made of Splinters
5. All That Breathes
The Snub: The Territory. Hardly a snub, as it was never really contending, but it's, for my money, the best documentary of 2022. A real snub was Moonage Daydream. I still find it hard to believe that it wasn't nominated.
My Prediction: Navalny
Best Animated Feature Film
Quick Thoughts: Probably the best set of five nominees at this year's show, and more importantly, the best set of animated feature nominees since 2009. (2017, '18, and '21 are also up there but eclipsed by these nominees.) It's such a shame (and kind of baffling) that this category is already locked down, but that's how it goes. I'll save my despair for another category, I suppose.
My Ballot:
1. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish - Can, most easily, see this being on my end of decade list for best animated films. It's gonna age like fine wine.
3. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
4. Turning Red
5. The Sea Beast
The Snub: Mad God. Should've gotten a production design nomination too, if we're being honest.
My Prediction: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Best Adapted Screenplay
Quick Thoughts: Another run-away category, helmed by my own personal pick for Best Adapted Screenplay, as well. We have to change the rules that say "all sequels are considered adapted screenplays." Glass Onion's nomination is flabbergasting. It has one returning character from the first film, and is otherwise an entirely different, original film. Top Gun: Maverick... not so much.
My Ballot:
1. Women Talking
2. Top Gun: Maverick - It's just the better version of the first movie, so it counts here.
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery - It's a good screenplay, but it doesn't fit this category. Not sure what to do with it on my ballot.
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Living - Tough when you're remaking the greatest movie of all time.
The Snub: After Yang by Kogonada. A really poetic screenplay from one of our modern maestros. It's such a shame he was shut out completely.
My Prediction: Women Talking
Best Original Screenplay
Quick Thoughts: One of the great misconceptions amongst audiences about screenplays is that they're merely scripts. It seems that many voters and prognosticators see them this way too. This is a two-horse category, neither of which are the best screenplay mind you, and it's almost impossible to predict. Will Everything Everywhere leave Banshees empty handed at this year's ceremony or... will Banshees pull off the minor upset and leave with something, anything? I still don't know. I'll decide in about nine lines.
My Ballot:
1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Tár
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Triangle of Sadness
5. The Fabelmans
The Snub: Nope. This is a crazy good screenplay and I contend that just too many people didn't understand the levels it was working on. Jordan Peele is so good for this one.
My Prediction: The Banshees of Inisherin
I really don't feel good about this one. I'm just being hopeful that the Irish will leave with something. It's almost a sure thing to be Everything Everywhere now that I've predicted this.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Quick Thoughts: Really thrilled for Ke Huy Quan. What a comeback narrative, what a performance, what a night this will be. I'm also pumped for Brian Tyree Henry, who I think gave one of the best performances of the year. The Banshees love is also great. Just a series of good decisions here by the Academy.
My Ballot:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin - No disrespect, I love this performance.
5. Judd Hirsh, The Fabelmans
The Snub: Danger Ehren for Jackass Forever. He was truly the MVP of one of the best movies of the year. Of course, he wouldn't be nominated ever, but still - he should've been.
My Prediction: Ke Huy Quan
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Quick Thoughts: The actress races are killing me this year. It's a three woman race here, and the two women left out are actually the best performances. Confounding stuff. But, hey, that's the Oscars. Here's where I come down on the three women in contention for the award: Kerry Condon peaked too early. Jamie Lee Curtis peaked too late. It's not gonna be a decisive win like Quan, but I think Angela Bassett will win. I hope so. If anyone deserves a legacy Oscar, it's her.
My Ballot:
1. Hong Chau, The Whale - She's actually #1 for The Menu.
2. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once - The idea of her losing this award to Jamie Lee Curtis fills me with immense rage.
3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Snub: Lashana Lynch for The Woman King. This was the best supporting performance by a woman of 2022. It's literally that simply.
My Prediction: Angela Bassett
Best Actor in a Leading Role
My Ballot:
1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin - And also After Yang, Thirteen Lives, and The Batman.
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Paul Mescal, Aftersun - I touched the small of his back.
5. Bill Nighy, Living - He's no Takashi Shimura.
The Snub: Daniel Kaluuya for Nope. This is one of the most complex and layered performances of the year. The Academy doesn't often recognize quiet black performances (or black performances in general), but you'd think they would for the world's premier actor.
My Prediction: Austin Butler
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Quick Thoughts: Probably the most interesting race of the night because one woman wants it so much and the other doesn't want it at all. (Then there are, of course, three women who may as well not be nominated.) I'll spoil my prediction now and explain it: I'm going with Cate Blanchett. I would love for Michelle Yeoh to win - it would be my favorite win of the night - but I'm not sure she can pull it off. There's a large contingency of old-school Academy members who will vote for Blanchett at #1 because it's a real "look at this actor act" movie, who will not have Yeoh #2 - maybe cause of racism, maybe cause of Everything Everywhere fatigue, maybe both. On the other hand, I think a lot of Everything Everywhere voters will have Blanchett at #2, cause I really can't see them putting Michelle Williams, Andrea Riseborough, or Ana de Armas above her. Maybe this is flawed thinking, but it's all I've got at this point. I hope I'm wrong.
My Ballot:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans - Love this performance but it's a supporting role.
4. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
5. Ana de Armas, Blonde - You're fucking kidding.
The Snub: Regina Hall for Honk For Jesus. Save Your Soul. This should've gotten Andrea Riseborough's grassroots campaign. The Academy hates black women, again.
My Prediction: Cate Blanchett
Best Directing
Quick Thoughts: I had almost an entirely different line-up for my five best directors. I guess these five are pretty good too though. Tom Cruise snubbed.
My Ballot:
1. Todd Field, Tár - This was my only overlap with the nominations. He's the clear winner in my mind. Tár is a singular accomplishment.
2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
5. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans - He'd be #1 if he were nominated for West Side Story (2021) again.
The Snub: Charlotte Wells (Aftersun), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Jordan Peele (Nope), or Alice Diop (Saint Omer) - take your pick.
My Prediction: The Daniels
Best Picture
Quick Thoughts: It isn't a perfect crop of nominees, but it is pretty indicative of the biggest films of 2022. The Best Picture narrative for Everything Everywhere All at Once will end up being a historic moment in the history of the Academy. An absolutely incredible win incoming. This will also set off what's sure to be a long streak of correctly predicting Best Picture winners, so I have a personal stake in its success. My favorite movie of 2022 winning Best Picture - it can't get much better.
My Ballot:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick - Do it Academy, do it.
3. Tár
4. Triangle of Sadness
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Women Talking
8. The Fabelmans
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Elvis - Watch this win...
The Snub: I'll remove some personal bias for The Menu and say that RRR was the biggest snub. That the Academy failed to capture such a global cultural phenomenon is disappointing. I also would've loved to see a nomination for Nope, obviously. You would think Jordan Peele slapped Chris Rock the way the Academy shut him out this year.
My Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once
There you have it. Fifty-four movies, twenty-three categories - done. I'd like to thank the Academy for saving my blog. Until next year...
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