So, My Unofficial 2022 Oscar Ballot and Predictions.
Many may assume that because I've been covering movies for the last three years and submit my Unofficial Oscar Ballot every spring that I'm excited for Academy Awards. They would be wrong. This week is Hell. With the Oscars still pushed further back than the normal early February date, the extra weeks of speculation and campaigning seems to have worn thin everybody with even a modicum of knowledge about this year's ceremony. That being said: Yes, I've returned for my third annual Unofficial Oscar Ballot where I make my own selections in each of the big twelve categories (and make my predictions, as well). Let's get this over with.
Best Director
My Pick AND My Prediction: I'm starting with Best Director because it's the least interesting of the twelve categories this year. My pick and my prediction overlap, and they're the overwhelming favorite to win the award: That's Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog. Campion is a modern master of cinema, she's never won the Oscar for Best Director, and she's due. Her direction - above all else - also just shines through The Power of the Dog. Really, really fantastic, and it'll be nice to see her win.
Best Cinematography
My Pick: With the exception of Nightmare Alley, this is an incredibly strong category this year. (I personally would've preferred to see The Green Knight in that fifth slot over Alley.) The other four nominees are all stellar choices though, and I wouldn't mind seeing any of them win. If I had a vote, I'd give all my love to Bruno Delbonnel for The Tragedy of Macbeth. The visuals of The ToMb, as it were, have stayed with me above everything else from the film, and they're what really stood out to me in the theater as well. Museum-worthy cinematography going on there.
My Prediction: As with most of the technical awards this year, I'm gonna go ahead and predict Dune to win the Oscar here. I'd be surprised if it went elsewhere, although there's a very strong case to be made for Ari Wegner's work in The Power of the Dog. Seeing as how Dune has no real shot at any other large awards (i.e. Best Picture) though, it's hard to take away Best Cinematography from this blockbuster.
Best Original Screenplay
My Pick: It's no secret that I have a lot of love for The Worst Person in the World. I thought it was the best film of last year, it was my favorite film of last year, hell, my Twitter banner is cover art from The Worst Person in the World. It would be a resounding YES from me on my ballot for original screenplay!
My Prediction: This category is where things get a little tougher to predict. On the one hand, I do genuinely believe The Worst Person in the World is the best screenplay here and has a good shot of winning. However, it's unfortunately hamstringed by it being a Norwegian film and thus being excluded from most preliminary awards/guilds shows. Licorice Pizza isn't a bad prediction, and if I were following the thing second closest to my heart, I would choose Anderson here. But I'm not. I'm gonna predict Branagh to win it for Belfast. I don't think it's an amazing screenplay (though it's leaps and bounds ahead of Don't Look Up, which I'm strangely afraid will win), but its emotional connection to the audience may allow it to win here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
My Prediction: Uhhhh... This is basically the Best Picture category with fewer options. Drive My Car, my own pick, and Dune, a beloved adaptation of a famously difficult novel, both seem (for whatever reason) to be out of the running for this award. That leaves three. I'd like to say it's really between The Lost Daughter and The Power of the Dog, because those are two really amazing screenplays. But, alas, we find CODA a thorn in this category. Now, I adore CODA. It made my top ten films of the year. Its screenplay, however, is easily its weakest facet. It's a run of the mill family dramedy. It hits all the predictable beats and leaves you feeling better for it. Not exactly inspired writing, if we're being honest. But, it's performed incredibly well over recent weeks, including winning at the Writers Guild Awards. I hope that's merely a ruffling of the feathers and not actually indicative of where this award is going, so that being said, I'm going to predict a win for The Power of the Dog. Cross my fingers.
Best Supporting Actress
My Pick AND My Prediction: Moving over to the four acting categories, let's start with the easiest to pick and predict. I love all of these women dearly. I'll cry my eyes out when Dunst finally wins her Oscar; Buckley will be a mainstay for years to come; Dench, a legend; and Ellis had one of the best scenes of the year. But this is Ariana DeBose's to lose. She is so goddamn electric in West Side Story. She elevates the film to a different plane when she's on screen, and there's really no other correct pick here.
Best Supporting Actor
My Pick: I haven't really given this category as much thought as I probably should have, on account of it being all sewn up. If I had to pick, though, I'd probably go with Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog. His performance works on so many different levels, and every time one watches it, you can see a new layer to his acting. It's really wonderful stuff from the newcomer.
My Prediction: No surprises here, I'm predicting Troy Kotsur to win it. He plays the heart of CODA. It's moving, funny, and a hell of a lot of hard work. He's earned the Oscar, and I'd bet my first born he'll get it.
Best Actor
My Pick: Ignoring the Garfield and Bardem nominations because I hate both of those performances, and instead, I'm focusing on Smith, Cumberbatch, and Washington. I would've loved to see Simon Rex nominated here for Red Rocket, as well as Nic Cage for Pig, but alas, we don't always get what we want. Here's something else I want that won't happen: Denzel Washington to win for his portrayal of Macbeth. Few actors have ever drawn me into their Shakespearean character the way Washington did. I thought he really blew it out of the park (as always), and I'd personally recognize him for it.
My Prediction: From the beginning, I've been predicting a Will Smith win for King Richard. I won't back down now. Get that Oscar, Will! You've earned it.
Best Actress
My Pick AND My Prediction: Now, you may think this is an easy category because I've combined my pick and my prediction, when, in reality, it may be the hardest category at this year's ceremony. Kidman is actively terrible in Being the Ricardos, and I wouldn't be surprised if she won. Jessica Chastain is literally the only good thing about The Eyes of Tammy Faye, and I wouldn't be surprised if she won. Olivia Colman is probably the best working actress in the world right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if she won. Cruz is in a movie the fewest people have seen, but has a long track record of great performances working under Pedro Almodovar, and I wouldn't be surprised if she won. Kristen Stewart has been campaigning incessantly for a movie that people either love or hate, and I wouldn't be surprised if she won. Thus, I am left only to follow my heart. I don't want a Chastain win, which I think is very likely, nor do I want a Kidman win, which I think is less likely. What I want, deep down, is for K. Stew. to finally get her moment. So, I'm going all in on Spencer to take Best Actress.
Best International Feature Film
My Pick: Again, very easy for you to guess what I'd pick here, myself. The Worst Person in the World. Bring it home, baby.
My Prediction: I've seen some genuine speculation about The Hand of God or the aforementioned Worst Person making a run at this award, but I'm still steadfast in my belief that Drive My Car will win. All evidence points to Japan bringing home the Oscar here. I'd be shocked if it went differently.
Best Animated Film
My Pick: It's a good thing I don't actually have a ballot, because this would be a really tough category for me. The line between The Mitchells vs. The Machines and Flee is razor thin in my estimation. On the one hand, I like The Mitchells more; on the other, I think this category is Flee's best shot at winning a much deserved Academy Award. I think I still end up leaning towards The Mitchells vs. The Machines, but it's a very close call.
My Prediction: For all the talk of not talking about Bruno, it's hard to predict anything but Encanto in this category. I'd love to see it be upset by either of my two potential picks (or even by the other Disney films here, which I think are better), but I highly doubt that will happen.
Best Documentary
My Pick: The only way I can live with giving Best Animated Film to The Mitchells vs. The Machines is by giving Best Documentary to Flee. Does it help that it's a groundbreaking work and my favorite documentary of 2021? I mean... yes.
My Prediction: If there's one person of color the Academy seems absolutely infatuated with, it's Questlove. For that reason alone (not to mention how splendid the actual documentary is) this Oscar will go to Summer of Soul. It'll be awesome to see Questlove accept his Oscar, and I have absolutely no gripes with this winning Best Documentary. It fucking rocks.
Best Picture
My Pick: Finally, the Best Picture category - a.k.a. Hell. This is a profoundly bizarre group of ten films, and what's stranger is that there's no clear winner. Now, just like the actual Oscar ballot, I'll give you my rank choice of these ten nominees. My choices are not determined by what is necessarily my favorite or what I believe captured the cultural moment of 2021 the most, but rather by which film I believe is the best in achieving all parts of the filmmaking process. After all, the Academy Awards are supposed to be about celebrating the art of filmmaking. "Supposed to be" being the key phrase there. Anyway, here's my unofficial Best Picture ranking.
- Drive My Car
- Licorice Pizza
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
- CODA
- Dune
- Belfast
- King Richard
- Nightmare Alley
- Don't Look Up
That I liked CODA more than any other film on this list - that it was higher on my top ten of 2021 list - is a moot point, because the level of filmmaking of the four I ranked above it were so much more difficult and expertly achieved. I feel no shame in putting my favorite movie of the ten at number five. I think the best movies are at the top in this order, and the absolute worst (*cough* *cough* Adam McKay) are buried at the bottom. But that's just me, and I'm certainly not the Academy.
My Prediction: It's only fitting that the toughest prediction of the night belongs to the biggest category. Four months ago, I could've sworn Belfast would walk away with the Best Picture trophy. Then, three months ago it looked like Don't Look Up would make a strong push. By the time nominations came out, the debate seemed settled with a resounding win for The Power of the Dog, which also leads the nominations with twelve. But in the last few weeks, all the momentum seems to have shifted to CODA. Where does that leave us? Well, it leaves me sweating out a decision that could break my streak of correctly predicting Best Picture winners (sitting on back-to-back wins with Parasite and Nomadland). In the end, I'm going with The Power of the Dog. Here's why: I want it to beat CODA. Plain and simple. I like CODA more, sure, but CODA is a feel good movie. Hollywood will never stop making feel good movies. The Power of the Dog, however, is a gritty, homoerotic Western, a return to form from one of cinema's modern masters, a blank check handed out by a big-time streamer. That Netflix just let Jane Campion make whatever film she wants is where I want the future of film to head. If large streamers are going to dominate the film industry, then let's let them shell out big bucks to critically acclaimed auteurs to make whatever the fuck they want. The Power of the Dogs are a dying breed, the CODAs are not. This wouldn't just be a win for Campion and her film (which I'm pumped for), or Netflix (which I'm less pumped for) - this would be a win for cinema. If the Academy wants to truly celebrate and help save cinema, they need to award the most daring, the most electric, the most prestigious of its forms. The Power of the Dog doesn't need to win Best Picture. Cinema needs it to.
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