OverTime: So, Has the 3 Point Revolution Gone Too Far?

Photo courtesy of NJ.com.

It is common knowledge that the Agricultural Revolution was the beginning of modern humanity, a moment that forever changed the course of history. It is the time period that saw the birth of society, when sapiens went from coordinated apes wandering the countrysides to intelligent beings forming large-scale societies. It is, as such, widely considered to be one of the most important moments in the history of the world.

However, in recent years historians such as Yuval Noah Harari and Jared Diamond have presented the compelling case as to why the Agricultural Revolution may have been the "worst mistake in the history of the human race." They contend that settling down and forming communities drove humanity into hierarchical systems (such as the patriarchy) and forced us into a state of dependency on crops and social structure. Before the Agricultural Revolution, humans were free to use their evolved senses to live off the land; after the Agricultural Revolution, humans were forced to do mind-numbing work all day just to maintain the poor-living conditions that had become their status quo. Historian Yuval Noah Harari presents further evidence suggesting that humanity was actually happier as a collective in the days before farming, and that by the time humans could begin to reconcile their loss of autonomy and happiness with the rise of rigid social structures, it was too late to turn back. Humanity had marched into the Agricultural Revolution, and they forgot how to live as hunter-gatherers. The human race had become far more efficient and far more abundant, but at what cost?

This historical question has been dwelling on my mind this weekend as I watch the first games of the NBA playoffs, because the sport of basketball may very well be at a similar moment in history. Except where the Agricultural Revolution saw humans embrace the efficiency of the crop yield, this new revolution in the NBA sees players embrace the efficiency of the 3 point line. And it may be to their own detriment.

Let's fast-forward the clocks from the dawn of humanity to May 28th, 2018. On the night of the 28th, the Houston Rockets, the #1 seed in the West, met with the reigning champions, the Golden State Warriors, in Houston for Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Houston had pushed the champs all the way to their breaking point, and now in Houston, James Harden and crew had a chance to steal a victory from the deadly clutches of Golden State. If Houston won, they would likely go on to win the Finals against LeBron's crumbling Cavaliers. If Golden State won, they would further cement their legacy as the greatest basketball team to ever play. Houston was the underdog, and now was their time to shine. And then, something with a chance of 1 in 7,000 happened: the Rockets missed 27 3 point shots in a row.

The Rockets lost that game by 9 points, and Golden State went on to sweep the Finals. The 2018 Rockets, the first team to ever take more 3 point shots than 2 point shots in the regular season, lost a title deciding game at home because their luck, their reliance, from behind the arc finally got the better of them. It was devastating, and yet it was just the beginning of the problems presented by the 3 point revolution. 

This weekend, a little under a year later, roughly the same thing happened to four other teams. (Luckily the Rockets won their first playoff game by a blow out.) In each of their first playoff games, four heavily favored teams - the Raptors, 76ers, Thunder, and Nuggets - lost to the series underdog. And they all had two things in common with each other and the 2018 Rockets: they lost by single digits in games where they overly relied on the 3 point shot. Actually, there were three things in common: every time they jacked up a 3 I winced. 

Now, because I can't help myself, let's look at the numbers. Nothing's more fun than statistics! The league average for 3 point percentage is 35.5%. So, just over a third of all 3 point attempts see the bottom of the net. Now, let's compare that average to those four first game losses. All in all the four losing teams combined for - drum roll please - 122 3 point attempts. And they sank - drum roll intensifies - a whopping 26 of them! 

Yeah, you read that right. 26. That's barely over 21%. In fact, 21% makes it sound better than it actually was. 26 out of 122 sounds more appropriate, which is to say, "fucking horrendous." Just for comparison, the teams they lost to combined for 43 of 95 from 3 point land. That's over 45%. That's also, you might notice, 27 fewer 3s attempted. Now, flip those numbers and allow me to really beat the point home - the losing teams missed more 3s than the winning teams even attempted. Like I said, "fucking horrendous."

This is all to say that those losing teams probably - no, definitely - would not have lost had they not attempted so many of their shots from behind the arc. When the ball doesn't fall, it doesn't fall. Game 7 should have taught these teams that. Yet, it didn't. 

The Nuggets, Sixers, Raptors, and Thunder all lost close playoff games against supremely under-talented squads because (among other reasons, of course) they couldn't figure out how to shake their dependency on the 3 point shot. The Nuggets, whose lone All-Star Nikola Jokic is a center (and one of the best centers in the league, at that), have the assets to play in the post. Jokic is a 7 foot center with the best passing ability in basketball. He should be eating the Spurs up in the paint. Instead, Denver took 28 3s. They made only 6. The same version of this story rears its head in each of the favorites' Game 1 losses.

The Raptors sport an elite 3 point shooter in Kyle Lowry. On Saturday, Lowry went 0 for 7 from behind the arc. The Raptors lost by 3.

Paul George, Oklahoma City's best 3 point shooter, has been battling an injury in his shooting shoulder, drastically diminishing his ability to hit long distance shots. But that didn't stop him from attempting 15 of them. He only made 4.

The Sixers have one of the sharpest shooters in the league in JJ Redick, as well as one of the worst high-volume 3 point shooters in Joel Embiid. And yet, Redick only attempted 4 shots from deep, while Embiid attempted 5. Combined - they made 1. 

Sure, these games may be exceptions. In fact, I'm confident in all of these teams to come back and win their series. And yes, if even a handful of those 3s had gone in, they would have won. But the fact remains, the best teams in the NBA rely on the 3 pointer and it is becoming increasingly apparent that they don't know what to do when those shots don't fall. 

Yes, it is preferable to be efficient from behind the arc, however when you're living behind the arc you begin to forget the happiness of thriving in the paint. If the league continues the long march away from the basket, there may be no turning back.